Tuesday Recap

I had sent out an email this morning stating that the chances were good for a very red day. Well it did not happen. We were on the verge of breaking out of a very reliable pattern, but it failed the backtest. Since we failed the backtest we now have good odds at testing the highs from Monday possibly tomorrow.

This is OPEX week so we should expect extreme swings in price. Often times we'll whipshaw back and forth for most of the week and end the week close to where we began. I will use a retest of the high as an opportunity to load up the short bus. Nothing that happened today has changed my outlook for lows in the near term.

I get the impression that there are forces keeping this market elevated. I posted some thoughts in a reply to Jay the other day regarding GS. This may be part of what is happening. I have talked before about Livermore's process for selling large volumes of stocks. This may be going on as well. Ultimately the market will correct. The longer they keep it elevated the deeper the retrace. In fact the odds increase of us actually testing the 666 bottom.

Ever since we hit a high on March 20 over 800 we've had a vicious tape. Gap opens almost everyday. Fast moves intraday often back and forth ending where we gapped open. We've been trading in a 50 point range almost exclusively for almost four weeks. I can't wait to break out of this. JPM releases earnings I think tomorrow. After this C is the last major financial to report. Perhaps it is these earnings announcements that the prices are being helpd up for. Once we put them in the rearview mirror we can finally move on.