New Wave Targets

I think I was a bit rpemature in ending wave 1 when I did. It is looking to me like we may get one more push up to new highs before ending this wave 1. EW target would be 860. Could end sooner, could end later, but most probable is 860. Gauging the length of the beginning of a new trend is difficult. Once the first leg is clear then a true EW'er can set high probable targets for the rest of the waves.



As it stands now My targets are ending this wave 1 in the 850-860 range. Wave 2 down goes to near 750. Wave 3 then will go to a minimum target of 950 to 1050. Wave 4's are usually long and boring. (the wave 4 from the past bear market lasted from late Oct to mid Feb and spent most of that time in a 150 point range.) Wave 5 could take us 100 points higher than wave 3. Kind of early to project wave 5 since it is possible that wave 1 extended.



The way I am trading this is per my previous plan. Stay short until the end of wave 2. i will scale out as we approach the wave 2 down target.



If I am wrong about where we are in the wave count, it will become apparent that we are in wave 3 already if we push up past 860 towards 900 in a steep, fast line. I highly doubt this since there is so much resistence above from a trend analysis. I really think we need lower prices to "refuel" the momentum gauges as we are currently oversold.