Longer term forecast

FWIW I have slightly revised my longer term forecast. Short term we are going down still so don't worry. Still targeting 725-750 range.

The charts off the bottom clearly have an ABC shape. So we have several scenarios on the table right now. Most likely is we are going to get a complex shape for this bear rally. I give this 80% liklihood. We should get our big correction down that probably began today. Then another complicated pattern back up to new highs.

Another scenario (15% liklihood) is that we completed wave A up and I am just not labeling the waves correctly. The result of this is a leg down like I have been talking about and then a simple five wave pattern up to new highs. This means no complx pattern.

Last scenario (5%) is that the ABC we experienced IS the bear rally. It is over and we are now down to new lows. The only thing that gives this scenario creedance is that we already met the minimum rise in price. The thing holding this scenario back is that its only been about 6 weeks since bottom. These usually last 4-18 months.

What I am looking for is a 5 wave structure down. We appear to have one nice wave down off of Friday's high. Wave 2 up would be the test of the bottom of the wedge. Then wave 3 down. Based on the lengths of the wave 1 and 3 I can better gauge the chances of the scenario's listed above.

BTW the black swan event is still a viable scenario. It would be the 5% option to new lows. The pieces are in place, but it is still highly unlikely at this point.