Second less favorable possibility

I came across another possible scenario for the intermediate term that is rather intruiging. This scenario suggests we are in a complex ending pattern for this bear market. It suggests that the high for this leg up CANNOT exceed 840. If we basically drop from here we would go straight down to new lows and end the bear. I place lower odds on this than my previous post. The reason is that I am a believer of the fact that simpler is usually correct and this ending shape is very rare and usually only seen to end BULL markets, not bear. However I must acknowledge its possibilty.

This scenario certainly fits much better with the dissconnects I have previously mentioned with the bond market, no capitulation bottom and market fundamentals. This acenario also fits better with the fact that this rally has been led by retail investors and NOT institutions and the fact that it appears that institutions are trying to prop this market up until the end of Q1 which is next Tuesday. However I give this only about a 25% chance. If we breach 840 than this scenario is dead.

Fortunately both scenarios have prices falling from where we are now. So I can initially play them both the same and hopefully get clarity as we go down.

I really like this new scenario as it fits better with the environment, however DO NOT underestimate the power of "hope and change". It is "hope and change" that have propelled us off the bottom and it is "hope and change" that could lead us to a mini bull market sooner than it could have.

The markets during the Great Depression killed many bears AND bulls with its many rises and falls that "should not" have happened. Just play the market that presents itself rather than the market that makes the most sense.