I expect today to close in the red. Probably not much. It is possible we put in another small candle today. When we get a large move in one direction it indicates much strength and can take a few days to turn momentum. Even if we end the day slightly green would not bother me. I would be nervous if we set and close highs above yesterday's highs.
A few random notes of importance:
1 - It is becoming clear that the bad bank plan may never get off the ground. Banks need the asset prices to be very high. If the price is significantly lower than the stated prices, banks would need to write down incredible amounts. They would then need to raise cash to remain capitalized. They cannot do that. Alos investors are rumored to be not interested in paying prices that are not well into their favor. This leaves the taxpayer to hold the bag. How much political capital is the Obama administration willing to spend on this? The public is against more bailout money. I'll stay on top of this.
2 - A truly terrifying statistic: Japanese exports dropped 49.4% YOY. YIKES! That will put any exporting nation straight past economic slowdown, through recession and into depression!
3 - The UK had a failed bond auction last night. Not sure exactly what to make of it yet. I did not read any details about it, only the headline. However I do know that the US has a large bond auction at 2:00est today.
4 - Durable goods numbers came in better than expected. January's numbers were revised significantly lowered. Many believe that the lowering of Jan. numbers was intentional. Reporting of better numbers in Jan makes Jan seem better. Lowering of those numbers than comparing them to Feb numbers makes Feb look better. A little game of trickery by our friends at the FED. Will Feb #'s get lowered next month to help the March numbers? Possibly.
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